Cause-consequence Diagram (CCD) is widely used as a deductive safety analysistechnique for decision-making at the critical-system design stage . Paper-and-pencil-based approaches and simulation tools, such as the Monte-Carloapproach, are commonly used to carry out CCD analysis, but lack the ability torigorously verify essential system reliability properties . In this work, we propose to use formal techniques based on theorem proving for the formalmodeling and step-analysis of CCDs to overcome the inaccuracies of thesimulation-based analysis and the error-proneness of informal reasoning bymathematical proofs . We demonstrate the practical effectiveness of theproposed CCD formalization by performing the formal reliability analysis of theIEEE 39-bus electrical power network. We also determine the ForcedOutage Rate (FOR) of the power generation units and the network reliability index, i.e., System Average Interruption Duration Index (SAIDI) We compare our results with those obtained

Author(s) : Mohamed Abdelghany, Sofiene Tahar

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Keywords : analysis - based - reliability - system - ccd -

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